← No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1239–1313
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1203
Q1 1239
Q3 1425
1508
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 46.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
